We’ve been here before.
Everton v Arsenal at Goodison Park should be one of the Premier League’s top fixtures, especially this season. After a stabilising campaign last year, Everton should have been looking to prove that they can attack the Premier League’s top six and perhaps even compete for a Champions League place. Whilst a summer in which they eventually spent the money required to sign a big-name striker gave some people hope that Arsenal could build on their FA Cup victory in late May.
But to think either of those things was probably foolish: in recent years, both clubs have shown us that optimism is not just inappropriate but downright damaging: don’t aim for the stars because the fall is harder if you shoot so high.
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A Europa League won’t wash away the disappointment of the Premier League season so far for Arsenal, who are already nine points back and have won only half of their games so far. Everton are two points above the relegation zone and have one of the worst goal differences in the league so far. Things are even more farcical in Europe.
The Toffees, you’d imagine, won’t finish quite as far down the table as they are at the moment, and for Arsenal, who currently occupy sixth place, the form of their opponents is perhaps the saving grace of the season so far: Everton were the most likely to break into that top six before the season began, and the Gunners the most likely to drop out.
But everything in this weekend’s game points to at least one of the clubs suffering yet another crisis. And we’ve been here before.
Just before Christmas last season, in fact. At the time, Arsenal looked like they might have turned a corner and Everton were at a distinct low point.
A 4-3 defeat to Liverpool on the opening day was beginning to look like a distant memory for Arsenal, and it was still their only defeat of the season. But a difficult double-header just before the festive period was where the wheels came off the title challenge.
A midweek game at Goodison was followed by a trip to the Etihad. Both ended in defeat, and from three points behind Chelsea before the trip to Everton, Arsenal found themselves nine points off the pace on Christmas day.
That, effectively, ruined their season. The Gunners had scored more goals than any other side in the league going into that double-header. They had beaten Chelsea 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium, and although Antonio Conte’s side had come back strongly, if Arsene Wenger had managed to mastermind even four points from a tough two games in the North West, they may well have had the confidence to mount a serious challenge.
Instead, two defeats showed just how soft the Gunners’ underbelly was. It showed they hadn’t changed in a decade, and that they crumbled at the first sign of pressure. They were, as always, Arsenal.
For Everton, meanwhile, it was only their second win in two months. A 5-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge had precipitated a collapse as Ronald Koeman suffered his first difficult spell in charge. At the time, though, Everton’s double header looked just as difficult as Arsenal’s, and there was no confidence in them to turn their form around.
After receiving Arsenal at home, next up was Liverpool in the derby. There may not have been the same vultures calling for Koeman’s head as there are right now, and things probably worse right now after a lamentable start to the season, but having failed to win in two months until beating Arsenal last December, that was probably the moment things started to look up.
Victory over Arsenal was followed by a very late defeat at home to Liverpool, but things had changed for Koeman. After the Liverpool game, his side didn’t lose again until March as they launched an assault on the Champions League places that wasn’t ended until another defeat to Liverpool. After that, the game was up and sixth place was inevitable. But victory over Arsenal seemed to relaunch their season.
It’s hard to see history repeating itself to the same for Everton. Victory over Arsenal wouldn’t be the scalp it was last December when the Gunners looked like real title challengers and would have gone top with a win. As such, it doesn’t look likely to kick-start a floundering season. This year, Arsenal have already lost two more games than they had done by the time they travelled to Goodison last season, and things look like they’ve crumbling down around Arsene Wenger much earlier than usual.
We’ve been here before numerous times with both clubs, and this time it feels like a must-win for both teams already. But it’s hard to see either side igniting their season this weekend.